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Who Will Win the
2026 World Cup?

Full statistical analysis of every serious contender for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, combining Betfair Exchange odds with StatRank™ power ratings built from qualifying form, goal quality data, and historical tournament pedigree.

Odds: Betfair Exchange decimal · Feb 2026 · For entertainment purposes only

The Top Contenders

Eight nations have a realistic statistical case for lifting the trophy in New York/New Jersey on July 19, 2026. Spain lead both the betting market and the StatRank™ power rankings.

1
Spain
Group H·UEFA·18.18% implied
5.50
decimal odds

FIFA No. 1 ranked team and the tournament's outright betting favourite. Spain won Euro 2024 in emphatic fashion and have been virtually untouchable in qualifying, winning 5 of 6 matches.

75.7% win rate2.73 goals/game6/10 last 10Full profile →
2
England
Group L·UEFA·13.16% implied
7.60
decimal odds

Euro 2024 finalists and one of the tournament's strongest contenders. England qualified with a perfect 8-0 record, scoring 22 goals and conceding none.

70.3% win rate2.19 goals/game9/10 last 10Full profile →
3
France
Group I·UEFA·11.11% implied
9.00
decimal odds

Two-time World Cup finalists in the last two editions (winning 2018, runner-up 2022). France remain an elite tournament team with extraordinary individual talent.

63.9% win rate2.22 goals/game7/10 last 10Full profile →
4
Brazil
Group C·CONMEBOL·10.53% implied
9.50
decimal odds

Five-time world champions enduring an unusually turbulent qualifying campaign. Brazil needed 18 matches to secure qualification, winning only 8 — far below their historical standards.

42.4% win rate1.64 goals/game5/10 last 10Full profile →
5
Argentina
Group J·CONMEBOL·10.53% implied
9.50
decimal odds

Defending world champions and the No. 2 ranked team in the world. Argentina enter the 2026 World Cup as one of the favourites after a dominant cycle that included the 2022 World Cup and 2024 Copa América titles.

80% win rate2.09 goals/game8/10 last 10Full profile →
6
Portugal
Group K·UEFA·7.69% implied
13.00
decimal odds

Cristiano Ronaldo leads Portugal into potentially his last World Cup. With 23 goals in the last 3 years at age 41, he remains prolific. A 69.4% win rate and strong qualifying campaign (4W-1D-1L) underpin their credentials.

69.4% win rate2.67 goals/game6/10 last 10Full profile →
7
Germany
Group E·UEFA·6.67% implied
15.00
decimal odds

The hosts of Euro 2024 are rebuilding under a new generation. A 52.8% win rate masks a wildly inconsistent period — 10 losses in 36 matches — but recent form shows 5 wins in their last 6.

52.8% win rate2.06 goals/game6/10 last 10Full profile →
8
Netherlands
Group F·UEFA·4.35% implied
23.00
decimal odds

A strong Dutch side with 2.47 goals per game — among the highest in the tournament. Qualified with ease (6W-2D-0L) and sit in a manageable Group F alongside Japan.

55.6% win rate2.47 goals/game6/10 last 10Full profile →

Dark Horses

Three nations at longer odds who carry a genuine StatRank™ rating above their market price. The 48-team format increases the number of knockout rounds, giving dark horses more opportunities to upset the established order.

Norway
Group I
35.00
2.86%

The Erling Haaland show. Norway's qualification is built almost entirely on their talisman's 29 goals in 30 matches — the most prolific individual campaign of any qualified nation. A perfect 8-0 qualifying record and current 9-match winning streak make them dark horses.

Full profile →
Belgium
Group G
51.00
1.96%

Belgium's 'golden generation' is in its twilight but still dangerous. A 52.9% win rate and Romelu Lukaku's 18 goals provide a solid foundation. Qualified unbeaten (5W-3D-0L).

Full profile →
Colombia
Group K
51.00
1.96%

Copa América 2024 finalists who have been consistently strong without ever quite being elite. A 57.9% win rate and Luis Díaz's creativity make them dangerous outsiders.

Full profile →